Project Overview
The Trichy–Madurai corridor on NH38, part of the assets offered by NHAI under TOT 15, was entrusted to Translink for traffic due diligence on behalf of a prospective investor. The assignment involved evaluating corridor performance, validating historical toll data, and forecasting future traffic in line with regional demand behaviour, seasonal variations, and long-term growth drivers.
The aim was to provide a clear, defensible traffic base to support investment appraisal and risk assessment.
Scope of Work
Traffic Due Diligence
Corridor Length & Configuration
124,4 km & 4 lane
No of Toll Plaza
2
Client & Asset Owner
IndInfravit Trust & National Highways Authority of India
Scope of Work
Traffic Due Diligence
Corridor Length & Configuration
124,4 km & 4 lane
No of Toll Plaza
2
Client & Asset Owner
IndInfravit Trust & National Highways Authority of India
Challenges
A primary challenge lay in the region’s fluctuating traffic patterns, shaped by local events, evolving freight movements, and regulatory shifts, which obscured the underlying demand and complicated the normalisation of historical toll data. Alongside this, the diligence process required reconciling our traffic and revenue estimations with those prepared for NHAI, ensuring that deviations were justified with evidence and aligned with the investor’s strategic objectives.
Determining the most appropriate revenue profile—especially where differences emerged in baseline demand, growth assumptions, or event-adjusted trends—required careful judgement to balance analytical rigour with competitive positioning.
Solutions
Translink stabilised historical data through structured normalisation to filter event-driven distortions and reconstruct a reliable base series. Comparative analytics were applied to review variances between our estimates and NHAI’s consultant outputs, supported by ground validations, traffic characteristics, and independent demand indicators.
Scenario-based modelling was used to frame acceptable revenue bands, allowing the investor to select a profile that was both competitively positioned and technically defensible, while maintaining internal consistency across baseline, growth, and revenue assumptions.
Impact
The approach delivered independently validated traffic framework that clearly distinguished structural demand from temporary anomalies and provided transparent reasoning for any variance from NHAI-linked estimates.
This strengthened the investor’s confidence in revenue projections, supported competitive bid positioning.
